The Arc · recap

The Arc: the Genesis Scottish Open

We commit a calibrated win-probability on every player before the first tee, then come back after and show you — honestly — where we were right and where we got humbled. Here is the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, told through the live win-probabilities that moved all week.

Four days ago we published a win-probability on every player at The Renaissance Club — before a shot was struck. Now the honest part. Tom Kim won the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, finishing at 17-under and winning by two over Min Woo Lee. What makes it land for us: Kim entered the week at a 0.8% pre-event win-probability — 27th in the model ranking, well outside the eight-player board we published. The board didn't find the winner. That's the kind of miss we show, not hide.

Before the first tee we published The Read: the Genesis Scottish Open. This is the honest close of that loop — graded against the exact board we committed to.

Act I - the winner's arc

Kim's week started quiet: 5-under through R1, a solid 4-under in R2, sitting at 9-under through the halfway mark and sharing the lead. By Sunday morning he was T4 at 11-under, the live win-probability we track had him at 7.7%, and Min Woo Lee was at the top of the in-play model at 17.7%. Then the final round happened. A birdie on the 4th moved him to 13-under and the sole lead; his number reached 23.3% through five holes. Birdies on 7 and 10 extended the gap and pushed it to 52.2%. A birdie on 12 — his fifth of the day — took him to 16-under and 72.5%. Lee was chasing hard behind him, and Kim's number dipped to 65.6% late on 15. But Kim birdied the 16th to reach 17-under, and the model jumped to 86.6% in the decisive shot-linked swing of the tournament. He parred in to seal it.

Act II - the Sunday swing

The single most dramatic win-prob move of the week was Kim's birdie on the 16th hole Sunday: the live win-probability we track jumped from 65.6% late on 15 to 86.6% as he reached 17-under with two holes left and Lee still at 15-under behind him. The full Sunday arc — 7.7% at the first tee to 100% once the result was final — is the widest single-round swing we've tracked at this event.

The near-misses

Plenty of you had these names on a slip, so we tell it straight, not smug.

• Min Woo Lee — the runner-up at 15-under, two back. He started Sunday with the highest live win-probability in the field at 17.7% and led early. He charged on the back nine — birdied 12 and 14 to get to 15-under — and through 14 his number climbed back to 27.8%. But Kim's birdie on 16 separated the two for good. Lee's pre-event number was 1.7%, outside the published board — a legitimate result, just not enough.
• Matt Fitzpatrick — tied for third at 13-under, the board's strongest hit. He was our number-six favorite at a 4.0% pre-event win-probability, and he delivered a top-3 finish. The board found the contender; the gap between contention and a trophy was five shots.
• Johnny Keefer — also tied for third at 13-under. Not on the published board, not in anyone's model top-20. His closing round pushed him into a share of third and the kind of Sunday story that makes links golf volatile for slips.

Act III - read vs. reality

This is the part most outlets skip. We don't. Every line here is a model estimate measured against what actually happened — not betting advice, and not a guarantee of anything.

• What we got right: the board found a contender. Matt Fitzpatrick — board favorite number six at 4.0% — finished tied for third. The Rory McIlroy number (5.5%, board number two) returned a T7 at 12-under — a weekend that held up without ever threatening to win.
• Where the board got humbled: the winner wasn't on it. Tom Kim entered the week at 0.8%, 27th in the model ranking, well below the eight names we published. And three of the eight published favorites — Scottie Scheffler (14.8%), Ludvig Åberg (4.0%), and Xander Schauffele (3.8%) — missed the cut entirely. The top number on the board fell at the 36-hole line.
• The storyline that played: this was a links week, and the leaderboard rewarded players who adapted round to round. Our board weighted recent form and model ceilings; the course rewarded something closer to Sunday nerve. Kim's closing charge — 6-under in the final round from four shots back — is exactly the kind of move the board doesn't price in.
• Calibration note — the board's worst week of the cycle. One name in the top 3 out of eight published is below the rate we'd want. The three cut misses are the real damage: Scheffler, Åberg, and Schauffele represent over 22% of the board's combined pre-event probability, gone at the halfway mark. We show that, not explain it away.

What's next

That's the arc — the board found one contender and lost three favorites to the cut, and the winner came from outside the published eight. Next up: The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, where we've already published The Read before the first tee.

Track all of it live — every win-probability swing on the players on your slip, in real time.

Predictions on liveslip.ai are model estimates, not advice. Live win-probability tracks what is happening on the course, not payouts.

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