The Read · live · through R1 · Jul 9–12
The Read: the Genesis Scottish Open
The board we would have published before the first tee is already a round old. We are not going to pretend otherwise. The Genesis Scottish Open is live, R1 is complete, and this is the read now: what the pre-event numbers said, what one round of links golf did to them, and what to watch on your slip through the weekend at The Renaissance Club.
R1 snapshot updated Jul 9, 2026, 7:58 PM UTC.
The board we would have published
These were the pre-tournament estimates before a shot was struck. They are a timestamped baseline for the live read, not a pick.
| Player | Win | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 14.8% | 39.0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5.5% | 19.9% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5.1% | 19.8% |
| Jon Rahm | 4.8% | 18.4% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4.0% | 15.8% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.0% | 16.7% |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.8% | 15.4% |
| Chris Gotterup | 2.5% | 11.2% |
R1 positions are factual live results; win-probabilities are pre-tournament estimates. Neither is a pick.
What R1 did to it
The table below is the completed first-round leaderboard. It is the factual turn in the story, frozen at the end of R1 rather than allowed to drift into Friday.
| Player | Thru | To par | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | 18 | −5 | T1 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 18 | −5 | T1 |
| Tom Kim | 18 | −5 | T1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 18 | −5 | T1 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 18 | −5 | T1 |
| Angel Ayora | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Brooks Koepka | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Min Woo Lee | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Oliver Lindell | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Andrew Novak | 18 | −4 | T6 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 18 | −4 | T6 |
R1 positions are factual live results; win-probabilities are pre-tournament estimates. Neither is a pick.
The strongest board-to-R1 overlap was Rory McIlroy: a 5.5% pre-event estimate, followed by T1 at −5 after R1.
The highest number on the pre-event table belonged to Scottie Scheffler at 14.8%; R1 ended at T27 and −2.
The first name near the top who was not in the pre-event table above was Patrick Cantlay, closing R1 T1 at −5.
The venue — The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club sits in North Berwick, Scotland. It is links golf: exposed, shaped by wind and firm turf, and traditionally the tour's links tune-up before The Open. That makes the leaderboard less static than a first-round screenshot can look.
What to watch on your slip
- The draw. Wind is the great leveler on a links. A calmer morning and a harder afternoon can move the live read before two players have faced the same version of the course.
- Rory McIlroy. R1 ended T1 at −5. The next question is whether that start holds as conditions and the chasing pack change around it.
- The fast move. A links leaderboard can turn in one clean round. That is exactly the kind of weekend liveslip.ai is built to track live, player by player on your slip.
Track all of it live as it happens — every win-probability swing on the players on your slip, in real time.
Track your slip livePredictions on liveslip.ai are model estimates, not advice. Live win-probability tracks what's happening on the course — not payouts.
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