The Read · pre-event
The Read: U.S. Open
2026 U.S. Open: the pre-event win-probability board liveslip.ai publishes, led by Scottie Scheffler at 12%.
Pre-event win, top-finish, and make-cut estimates.
2026 u.s. open · the board we publish · pre-event estimates
Top four pre-event win estimates on one shared 0–15% scale.
★ 12.3%
Scottie Scheffler
top number
6.7%
Rory McIlroy
5.1%
Jon Rahm
4.9%
Xander Schauffele
Shared 0–15% scale · published pre-event numbers only
The published board
This is the complete pre-event snapshot behind the names shown here. Every displayed probability passed the same finite-data check; missing cells hold the page instead of disappearing from the table.
| Player | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 12% | 35% | 50% | 66% | 87% |
| Rory McIlroy | 7% | 23% | 35% | 52% | 81% |
| Jon Rahm | 5% | 19% | 31% | 49% | 80% |
| Xander Schauffele | 5% | 18% | 30% | 47% | 78% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4% | 15% | 25% | 41% | 75% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3% | 15% | 27% | 45% | 78% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3% | 15% | 26% | 43% | 77% |
| Cameron Young | 3% | 14% | 25% | 41% | 75% |
| Si Woo Kim | 2% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 74% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2% | 10% | 18% | 31% | 68% |
| Sam Burns | 2% | 10% | 19% | 33% | 71% |
| Collin Morikawa | 2% | 9% | 17% | 32% | 70% |
| Chris Gotterup | 2% | 8% | 16% | 29% | 67% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% | 9% | 17% | 32% | 70% |
| Russell Henley | 2% | 9% | 18% | 33% | 71% |
| Viktor Hovland | 2% | 8% | 16% | 30% | 69% |
| Justin Thomas | 2% | 8% | 15% | 28% | 66% |
| Min Woo Lee | 2% | 8% | 15% | 29% | 67% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% | 8% | 15% | 29% | 68% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% | 7% | 14% | 27% | 65% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1% | 7% | 14% | 27% | 65% |
| Brooks Koepka | 1% | 7% | 13% | 25% | 65% |
| Wyndham Clark | 1% | 7% | 13% | 26% | 64% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% | 6% | 13% | 25% | 64% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% | 6% | 13% | 26% | 65% |
| Adam Scott | 1% | 6% | 13% | 25% | 64% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1% | 6% | 11% | 23% | 62% |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% | 6% | 12% | 24% | 64% |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 62% |
| Patrick Reed | 1% | 6% | 13% | 26% | 66% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 61% |
| Shane Lowry | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 0.9% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 62% |
| Ben Griffin | 0.9% | 6% | 12% | 25% | 65% |
| Jake Knapp | 0.8% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 59% |
| Bud Cauley | 0.8% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| David Puig | 0.8% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 59% |
| Harris English | 0.7% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 63% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 22% | 61% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 61% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.7% | 4% | 10% | 21% | 60% |
| Aaron Rai | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 22% | 62% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.6% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 59% |
| Gary Woodland | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 56% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 58% |
| Alex Smalley | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 58% |
| Sepp Straka | 0.5% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 56% |
| Alex Noren | 0.5% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 58% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.5% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 58% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.4% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 54% |
| Ryan Fox | 0.4% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 55% |
| Harry Hall | 0.4% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 56% |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 52% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.4% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 54% |
| J.T. Poston | 0.4% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 56% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 53% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Max Greyserman | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 50% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.3% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 54% |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 50% |
| Michael Brennan | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 49% |
| Jason Day | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Sam Stevens | 0.3% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 54% |
| Davis Thompson | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Tom Kim | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Nick Taylor | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 52% |
| Brian Harman | 0.3% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 52% |
| Andrew Novak | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 51% |
| Daniel Berger | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 50% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 50% |
| Corey Conners | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 51% |
| Matt McCarty | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 49% |
| Sungjae Im | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 49% |
| Michael Kim | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 49% |
| Cameron Smith | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 50% |
| Jayden Schaper | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 52% |
| Jackson Suber | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 48% |
| Max McGreevy | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 48% |
| William Mouw | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 46% |
| Matti Schmid | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 44% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 46% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 11% | 51% |
| Ben James | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 43% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3% | 7% | 40% |
| Preston Stout | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 6% | 39% |
| Chris Kirk | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 7% | 42% |
| Ben Kohles | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Billy Horschel | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2% | 5% | 37% |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| Cooper Dossey | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 7% | 42% |
| Nico Echavarria | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 6% | 38% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 7% | 43% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 7% | 42% |
| Kevin Roy | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 4% | 35% |
| Caleb Surratt | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| Laurie Canter | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 4% | 33% |
| John Parry | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 6% | 40% |
| Neal Shipley | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 33% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 3% | 29% |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 35% |
| James Nicholas | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
| Matthew Jordan | 0% | 0.4% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Zac Blair | 0% | 0.4% | 1% | 4% | 35% |
| Ben Silverman | 0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2% | 29% |
| Dylan Wu | 0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 3% | 31% |
| Chandler Phillips | 0% | 0.3% | 1% | 3% | 33% |
| Cole Hammer | 0% | 0.3% | 1% | 3% | 30% |
| Carl Yuan | 0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2% | 27% |
| Miles Russell | 0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2% | 28% |
| Harry Higgs | 0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2% | 29% |
| Niklas Norgaard | 0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2% | 26% |
| Graeme McDowell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1% | 21% |
| Ryder Cowan | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1% | 21% |
| Nick Hardy | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 22% |
| Filippo Celli | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 17% |
| Padraig Harrington | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 23% |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2% | 26% |
| Rocco Paolo Repetto Taylor | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 17% |
| Taihei Sato | 0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2% | 24% |
| Ethan Fang | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 16% |
| Angel Hidalgo Portillo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1% | 19% |
| Jake Peacock | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 15% |
| Brandon Wu | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 18% |
| J.B. Holmes | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 7% |
| Giuseppe Puebla | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 10% |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 22% |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 17% |
| Gunnlaugur Arni Sveinsson | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 9% |
| Hamilton Coleman | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 6% |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 14% |
| Eric Lee | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 16% |
| Ryuichi Oiwa | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 11% |
| Kaito Onishi | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 12% |
| Marek Fleming | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Vaughn Harber | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Jackson Herrington | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 9% |
| Robbie Higgins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 7% |
| Brandon Holtz | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| T.K. Kim | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.8% |
| Chase Kyes | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 8% |
| Greyson Leach | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 17% |
| Bryan Lee | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 9% |
| Jackson Ormond | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 7% |
| Logan Reilly | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 11% |
| Matt Robles | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Jack Schoenberger | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Manav Shah | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 5% |
| Jake Sollon | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 5% |
| Spencer Tibbits | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 5% |
| Peter Uihlein | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 23% |
Swipe the table to reach top 20 and make cut.
Pre-event estimates shown in board order.
How to read it
These are estimates on our published board, not a promise and not betting advice. The page preserves the pre-event snapshot so the eventual recap can compare the same board with the verified finish.
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