The Read · BMW Championship · Bellerive Country Club · Aug. 20–23
The Read: BMW Championship
The FedExCup Playoffs narrow at Bellerive, where a 50-player field starts with one clear favorite and tightly packed groups behind him.
Pre-event win, top-finish, and make-cut estimates.
The setup
The BMW Championship returns to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri. The opening holes make position visible immediately: the first asks for a fairway between bunkers before an approach to a guarded green, and water shapes the choices on the second and third.
The week and weather
Competitive rounds are scheduled from Thursday, Aug. 20 through Sunday, Aug. 23. This Read keeps the timing fixed to that official schedule and does not add a weather forecast to the pre-event board.
What’s at stake
This is the second of three FedExCup Playoffs events. The field is the top 50 in the Playoffs, and the week determines which 30 players advance to the TOUR Championship, so leaderboard movement and the season-long threshold will move together without meaning the same thing.
Scottie Scheffler begins at 17.5% to win in the frozen board. Ludvig Aberg is next at 5.4%, followed by Xander Schauffele at 4.8% and Rory McIlroy at 4.6%. Those gaps define the opening shape: one leader, then a close chase group with room to reorder quickly.
The board — win-probability before the first tee
The 50-player board below was captured Tuesday, Aug. 18 at 8:55 PM UTC. It shows win, top-five, top-10, top-20, and make-cut estimates from the same pre-event snapshot. These estimates are a fixed informational starting point, not picks, promises, or betting advice.
| Player | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 17% | 47% | 64% | 83% | 100% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5% | 21% | 37% | 60% | 100% |
| Xander Schauffele | 5% | 20% | 36% | 59% | 100% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5% | 20% | 35% | 58% | 100% |
| Cameron Young | 4% | 18% | 33% | 56% | 100% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% | 19% | 34% | 59% | 100% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4% | 18% | 33% | 58% | 100% |
| Sam Burns | 4% | 17% | 31% | 55% | 100% |
| Si Woo Kim | 3% | 16% | 31% | 56% | 100% |
| Chris Gotterup | 3% | 15% | 28% | 51% | 100% |
| Viktor Hovland | 3% | 14% | 27% | 50% | 100% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3% | 14% | 27% | 51% | 100% |
| Collin Morikawa | 2% | 12% | 24% | 47% | 100% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% | 13% | 26% | 49% | 100% |
| Justin Thomas | 2% | 12% | 24% | 47% | 100% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% | 11% | 22% | 44% | 100% |
| Min Woo Lee | 2% | 10% | 21% | 42% | 100% |
| Maverick McNealy | 2% | 10% | 21% | 42% | 100% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 2% | 9% | 20% | 41% | 100% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 2% | 9% | 20% | 41% | 100% |
| Jake Knapp | 2% | 9% | 19% | 39% | 100% |
| Tom Kim | 2% | 10% | 20% | 43% | 100% |
| Ben Griffin | 2% | 9% | 20% | 42% | 100% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% | 10% | 21% | 43% | 100% |
| Russell Henley | 1% | 9% | 19% | 41% | 100% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% | 8% | 18% | 39% | 100% |
| Michael Brennan | 1% | 7% | 15% | 34% | 100% |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 7% | 15% | 33% | 100% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% | 6% | 15% | 34% | 100% |
| Sungjae Im | 1% | 7% | 15% | 34% | 100% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% | 7% | 16% | 36% | 100% |
| Alex Smalley | 1% | 7% | 15% | 34% | 100% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% | 7% | 15% | 34% | 100% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.9% | 6% | 14% | 32% | 100% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.9% | 6% | 14% | 33% | 100% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.9% | 6% | 14% | 33% | 100% |
| Adam Scott | 0.8% | 6% | 14% | 33% | 100% |
| Alex Noren | 0.8% | 6% | 14% | 34% | 100% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.8% | 6% | 14% | 33% | 100% |
| Ryan Fox | 0.6% | 4% | 11% | 28% | 100% |
| Eric Cole | 0.5% | 4% | 10% | 26% | 100% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.5% | 4% | 10% | 26% | 100% |
| Gary Woodland | 0.5% | 4% | 10% | 25% | 100% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.5% | 4% | 10% | 26% | 100% |
| Aaron Rai | 0.5% | 4% | 10% | 27% | 100% |
| Nico Echavarria | 0.4% | 3% | 9% | 24% | 100% |
| J.T. Poston | 0.4% | 4% | 9% | 25% | 100% |
| Sepp Straka | 0.3% | 3% | 8% | 21% | 100% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.3% | 3% | 7% | 21% | 100% |
| Matt McCarty | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 17% | 100% |
Swipe the table to reach top 20 and make cut.
Pre-event estimates shown in board order.
What to watch
Start with the gaps the board gives us: Scheffler against the field, the three-player chase behind him, and the larger group separated by only a few percentage points. Then watch how Bellerive’s preferred angles, guarded greens, and recovery demands change those tiers across four rounds.
Sources: official BMW Championship spectator information, the official Bellerive Country Club course guide, and the company-owned pre-event probability snapshot. For adults 21+; liveslip.ai provides informational tracking only and does not place, change, or advise on wagers. If gambling is causing harm, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.