The Read · 3M Open · TPC Twin Cities · Jul 23–26
The Read: 3M Open
The Twin Cities stop is here. Before the first tee, this is the course, the season context, and the published board liveslip.ai will carry into four days of live tracking.
Pre-event win, top-finish, and make-cut estimates.
The setup
The PGA TOUR’s 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, July 23–26. The par-71 course plays 7,431 yards. It is the tour’s Upper Midwest stop: four days, one 144-player field, and a full live board that begins before a shot is played.
What’s at stake
The 3M Open carries 500 FedExCup points and an $8.8 million purse—enough to make a late-July week matter across the field. Kurt Kitayama arrives as the defending champion.
The interest is not limited to the name at the top of the first board. This is where the pre-event board gets a fresh four-round test, and where a pre-event estimate has to survive actual tee shots, scoring swings, and a Sunday finish. The point of this Read is to make that starting line visible before any of it happens.
The board — win-probability before the first tee
Below is the pre-event board liveslip.ai publishes for the verified field. These are model estimates, not picks or betting advice. The snapshot is preserved so the eventual recap can compare the same starting board with the verified result.
| Player | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 25% | 53% | 67% | 79% | 93% |
| Maverick McNealy | 3% | 15% | 25% | 41% | 76% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 3% | 14% | 24% | 39% | 75% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3% | 12% | 22% | 37% | 75% |
| Tom Kim | 2% | 12% | 21% | 35% | 73% |
| Jackson Koivun | 2% | 10% | 18% | 32% | 71% |
| Keith Mitchell | 2% | 10% | 19% | 32% | 71% |
| Jake Knapp | 2% | 9% | 16% | 28% | 67% |
| Jordan Smith | 2% | 9% | 16% | 30% | 70% |
| Corey Conners | 2% | 9% | 16% | 30% | 70% |
| Michael Brennan | 2% | 8% | 15% | 27% | 66% |
| Sungjae Im | 1% | 8% | 15% | 27% | 67% |
| Jackson Suber | 1% | 8% | 14% | 26% | 66% |
| Doug Ghim | 1% | 8% | 15% | 28% | 68% |
| Pierceson Coody | 1% | 7% | 14% | 27% | 68% |
| Mac Meissner | 1% | 8% | 15% | 29% | 69% |
| Ben James | 1% | 8% | 15% | 27% | 67% |
| Max Homa | 1% | 7% | 14% | 25% | 66% |
| Johnny Keefer | 1% | 7% | 14% | 25% | 66% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 1% | 7% | 13% | 25% | 65% |
| Sam Stevens | 1% | 7% | 14% | 26% | 67% |
| Casey Jarvis | 1% | 6% | 13% | 24% | 65% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 61% |
| Max Greyserman | 1% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 64% |
| Jason Day | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 22% | 63% |
| Michael Kim | 0.9% | 6% | 11% | 22% | 63% |
| Gary Woodland | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 62% |
| Brian Harman | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 22% | 63% |
| Tony Finau | 0.9% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 62% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.8% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 62% |
| Davis Thompson | 0.8% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 62% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0.8% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 65% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0.8% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 60% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0.8% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 62% |
| William Mouw | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 59% |
| Steven Fisk | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 60% |
| Zach Bauchou | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 62% |
| Jesper Svensson | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 56% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 60% |
| Ben Kohles | 0.7% | 4% | 10% | 20% | 63% |
| Rico Hoey | 0.7% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 60% |
| Beau Hossler | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 61% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 60% |
| Kevin Yu | 0.7% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 60% |
| Max McGreevy | 0.7% | 5% | 10% | 21% | 63% |
| Zecheng Dou | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 58% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 57% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 0.6% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 57% |
| Taylor Moore | 0.5% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 57% |
| Matti Schmid | 0.5% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 56% |
| Preston Stout | 0.5% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 55% |
| Kevin Roy | 0.5% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 56% |
| John Parry | 0.5% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 61% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 0.5% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 55% |
| Denny McCarthy | 0.5% | 4% | 8% | 18% | 60% |
| Haotong Li | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 53% |
| A.J. Ewart | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 54% |
| Lee Hodges | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 55% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 54% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 53% |
| Austin Smotherman | 0.4% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 52% |
| Chris Kirk | 0.3% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 53% |
| Seamus Power | 0.3% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 54% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0.3% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 54% |
| Garrick Higgo | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 51% |
| Zac Blair | 0.3% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 56% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.3% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 56% |
| Joel Dahmen | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 51% |
| Austin Eckroat | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 52% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 53% |
| Karl Vilips | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 50% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 49% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 50% |
| Tom Hoge | 0.3% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 51% |
| Trace Crowe | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 48% |
| Lucas Glover | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 12% | 52% |
| Chandler Phillips | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 49% |
| Aaron Wise | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 48% |
| Nick Dunlap | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 47% |
| Billy Horschel | 0.2% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 51% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 48% |
| Chad Ramey | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 49% |
| Neal Shipley | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 45% |
| Lanto Griffin | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 47% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 50% |
| David Lipsky | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 47% |
| Matt Kuchar | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 50% |
| Luke Clanton | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 45% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 47% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 0.2% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 45% |
| Ryder Cowan | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| David Skinns | 0.2% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 46% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 41% |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Hank Lebioda | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 41% |
| Hayden Springer | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0.2% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| Vince Whaley | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 45% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| John VanDerLaan | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 44% |
| Adam Hadwin | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Harry Higgs | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 42% |
| Davis Chatfield | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 46% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 40% |
| Brice Garnett | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Luke List | 0.1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 39% |
| Paul Peterson | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3% | 7% | 44% |
| Cameron Champ | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 5% | 37% |
| Kensei Hirata | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 6% | 41% |
| Gordon Sargent | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 5% | 37% |
| Will Gordon | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 6% | 39% |
| Ben Silverman | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Dylan Wu | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Cam Davis | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2% | 6% | 38% |
| Adam Svensson | 0.1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 43% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 6% | 40% |
| Davis Riley | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| Peter Malnati | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 5% | 36% |
| Kevin Streelman | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 5% | 38% |
| Justin Lower | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 5% | 38% |
| Nick Hardy | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 6% | 39% |
| Fabian Gomez | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 6% | 41% |
| Danny Walker | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% | 4% | 35% |
| Adam Schenk | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Tyler Duncan | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2% | 5% | 39% |
| Troy Merritt | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 33% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Camilo Villegas | 0% | 0.5% | 1% | 4% | 34% |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% | 0.4% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
| Rafael Campos | 0% | 0.4% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
| Christo Lamprecht | 0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 3% | 27% |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 3% | 30% |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2% | 23% |
| Jeremy Paul | 0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 3% | 29% |
| Ben Martin | 0% | 0.3% | 1% | 3% | 32% |
| Ryan Brehm | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1% | 18% |
| Griffin Wood | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 12% |
| Brannon Fahrny | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 13% |
| Thomas Campbell | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 9% |
| Jeevan Sihota | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 7% |
| Cooper Schultz | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 12% |
| Muzzy Donohue | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.5% |
| Sihan Sandhu | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 14% |
Swipe the table to reach top 20 and make cut.
Pre-event estimates shown in board order.
What we’ll be sweating
Four days create more than one leaderboard moment. The live view is for the changes that a static pre-event board cannot show: a round that moves a player through the field, a cut-line decision, a charge that changes the final-day picture, and the finish that lets the recap grade the same pre-event board.
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